Contents
|
|
|
| |
Empirical Analysis of The Impact of Direct Foreign Investment on the Economy of
Nigeria
FRANK A. DIMOWO AND SAMSOON EOO
|
This paper examined the impact of foreign investment on the
economy of Nigeria from 1975-1994. Emphasis is on direct foreign investment and
its impact on Gross Domestic product (GDP), Balance of Payments (BOP), Gross
National Savings (GNS) and External Reserves (ER). These economic indicators
are proxies for the economy.
Results from the analysis reveal that foreign investment has had impressive and
satisfactory impact on the economy. Foreign investment was remarkably high
during the period with a positive influence on the economy. The only exception
is that it did not have a favorable impact on BOP. This notwithstanding,
foreign investment has generally been worthwhile. There is thus the need to
encourage increased inflow by improving the political climate and pursuing
foreign investment policies with more zeal. |
|
|
|
Stock Market Development and Economic Growth in India
PRATAP CHANDRA BISWAL AND VEERASHEKHARAPPA |
This paper evaluates the role of stock market development to
induce economic growth in India. Considering market capitalization, value
traded and turnover ratios to represent stock market development, and GNP (as
proxied by the Index of Industrial Production) to represent economic growth,
the present study relates economic growth to the stock market development
indices by applying correlation and multiple regression analysis. The study
based on monthly data (1991:1-1998:12) suggests that the stock market
development plays a significant role in the economic growth process in India. |
|
|
|
Promotion
Institutions and Business Performance of Small-Scale Industries : Evidence from the Central Region in Ghana
J. V. MENSAH |
Successive governments in Ghana, sometimes with foreign
support, have established institutions and schemes to address the
institutional, manpower, financial, entrepreneurial and technological needs of
the small enterprise sector. Despite the efforts, very little empirical studies
have been conducted on the effects of the promotional activities on the
business performance of small-scale industries.
This Paper compares the business performance of the small-scale industries with
support of promotion institution and those without support. Based on primary
and secondary data on 175 firms and six institutions in four districts in the
Central Region of Ghana, the paper argues that the existing promotional support
has marginal effects on the performance of the SSI. The results have important
policy implications for the government in its efforts to encourage SSIs for
national development. |
|
|
|
An Examination
of Forward Market Efficiency Using Co-integration Techniques
HAFIZUR RAHMAN AND SHEKAR BOSE
|
This paper examines the issue of forward market efficiency
using co-integration techniques. The test results lend support to the random
walk hypothesis as applied to the spot and the forward rates for Canadian and
Japanese foreign exchange markets. Although co-integration tests support the
efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), results from the associated error
correction model fail to support the EMH. |
|
|
|
A Market Demand
Curve Construction for a Good by Using Bivariate Probability Distribution
Method
MIAO-SHENA CHEN AND CHIN-WEN TINA
|
A demand curve is usually constructed by using utility
function method. Practically, it is difficult to estimate a market demand curve
for a good by means of the method. The basic assumption of the study is that a
demand curve for a good is influenced by two variables; the highest price a
consumer is willing to pay for the good and the highest price a consumer is
able to afford for the good. Then through market surveys, one can acquire these
prices the consumer is willing to pay and those he is able to afford.
Therefore, a market demand curve can be constructed by applying these data. |
|
|
|
The Forecasting
Performance of the Box- Jenkins Model: The Case of Wheat and Wheat Flour Prices
in Bangladesh
Q. A. SAMAD. M. Z. ALl AND M. Z. HOSSAIN
|
In this paper forecast errors have been estimated from Box-
Jenkins models for wheat and wheat flour prices in Bangladesh. Three types of
forecasts have been generated using the models i.e., historical, ex-post and
ex-ante. The models on the basis of which these forecasts have been computed
were selected taking 6 (six) important information criteria into account i.e.,
Akaike's (1973) Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz's (1978) Bayesian
Information Criterion (BIC), Theil's (1961) (R2), Theil' (1971) (R2). SE (CJ)
and Mean Absolute Percent Errors (MAPEs). Three types of forecast errors i.e.,
Root Mean Square Percent Errors (RMSPEs), Mean Percent Forecast Errors (MPFEs)
and Theil's Inequality Coefficients (TICs) have been estimated and reported
here. These estimates suggest that in most cases the forecasting performance of
the models in question is satisfactory. |
|
|
|
An Application of
Resource Depletion to the System of National Accounts: A Case Study of Forest .
Resource in Malaysia
A.H.M. MUSTAIN BILLAH
|
The national income account provides the most widely used
indicator of economic performance, growth and economic development. The System
of National Accounts (SNA) provides information to identify a country's assets
and liabilities at particular points in time. Thus SNA has become the standard
framework used for measuring macroeconomic performance, analyzing trends of
economic growth, and providing the economic counterpart of social welfare.
Presently the concept of capital maintenance applies only to physical capital;
limited account is taken to the contribution of natural resource and
environment to economic activity. Hicksian income is defined as the maximum
value that a person can consume during a time period and still expect to be
well off at the end of period as at the beginning. It is therefore, important
that national income be measured correctly to indicate sustainable income.
Globally policy makers are coming to realize that economic production cannot be
measured without accounting for environmental concerns. Revenues derived from
resource extraction have the potential to finance investment in other sectors
of the economy. In order to incorporate resource depletion into the SNA present
study applied user cost method. The study suggests that the trend of AGOP is a
good indicator of economic sustainability. Two sustainability indicators of
Pears- Atkison and World Bank also confirm the economic sustainability of
Peninsular Malaysia with respect to forest resource depletion. |
|
|
|
Commercial Bank's
Portfolio, Composition and Economic Activity in Nigeria
R. A. AJISAFE
|
This study examines the portfolio composition of commercial
banks and its impact on the economy. The study was empirically investigated
between 1970 and 1998 - which covers the oil boom of the 1970s, the collapse of
the oil market prices in the early 1980s and the structural adjustment
programme of 1986.
The analytical technique used in the study was the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM).
This is used in order to capture the long run effect of portfolio variables on
GNP. In using error correction mechanism, stationarity and co integration tests
were performed on the variables.
For the stationarity test, all the variables used were of order 1 1(1) and they
are also co integrated in the long run. In our analysis. we make use of over
parametized model where each of the variables were allowed to determine its own
long length. The results of the analysis suggest that portfolio variables-
Loans and Investment contribute significantly to our cross National Product for
the period under review. Also one can suggest that banks may invest their
portfolio in securities rather than given it out as loans. |
|
|
|
Indian Stock Market
In International Diversification An FII's Perspective
S. S. S. KUMAR |
Since 1991, the Indian Economy in general and Indian capital
market in particular had witnessed reforms at a pace unprecedented in the past.
The number of investors participating in the securities market has grown
manifold and new kinds of investors like Foreign Institutional Investors (Fils)
were allowed to invest in Indian market. The basic motivation behind FII
investments in India is driven by the benefits that accrue from international
diversification. This study attempts to find out whether Indian Stock market is
integrated with the major stock markets of the world like US, Japan, Singapore
and Hong Kong. As the conventional measures like correlation estimates fail to
capture such interrelationships, the study makes use of Johansen's Maximum
Likelihood Method in addressing this issue. The results of this analysis show
that prima facie Indian Stock Market is not co-integrated with any of the
markets considered in the study. The finding of no co integration may be
interpreted as evidence of international diversification benefits available to
the Fils. |
|
|
|
Economic Reforms and
Technical Efficiency: A Study of Selected Indian Industries
M. MALLIKARJUN AND KASY AP THAKAR
|
The industrial scenario of India underwent fundamental
change in mid 1980's and early 1990's with the introduction of liberalized
economic policies. This paper is an attempt to verify the impact of these
policies changes on the technical efficiency (TE) of Indian Industries. In this
regard three major industry groups from Gujarat (one of the most developed
province of India) has been considered. Technical efficiency has been measured
by applying DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). |
|
|
|
Fiscal Stabilization and
State Finances: A Case .Study of Uttar Pradesh
NASEEM A ZAIDI
|
Finance Commission is the apex body to bring in fiscal
discipline in the state finances but the recommendations of the successive
Finance Commissions failed to achieve the desired objective. The Eleventh
Finance Commission drew a gloomy picture of combined states' deficit on revenue
which was projected to go up from 6.04 percent in 1999-2000 to 8.61 percent of
combined SOP of all the states in the year 2004-05. In case of the Union
government while fiscal deficit declined from 6.6 percent of GDP in 1990-91 to
5.5 percent of the same in 1999-2000, in case of combined deficit of states it
increased from 3.2 percent of SOP to 4.6 percent of the same during the same
period. |
|
|
|
|
Foreign Direct Investment
and Economic Growth in India: A Production Function Analysis
JAY A PRAKASH PRADHAN
|
The economic role of FDI is increasingly becoming
significant in the Indian economy with the transition of FDI policy from a
restrictive phase of seventies and early eighties to a relatively liberal phase
of late eighties and nineties. In this context, it is essential to investigate
whether FDI contributes positively to the production process, or negatively.
Estimation of production function for the Indian economy suggests that FDI
stock had contributed positively to the national production. Although the FDI
impact was not significant for the overall period, bifurcating the sample
indicate a significant impact for the relatively liberal policy phase. |
| |
