Special Centennial Issue

No. 392

July 2018

Vol. XCIX

ISSN: 0019-5170

Contents
 
 

Vartta, Arthashastra, and Modern Economics: The Domain of Knowledge


Ram Narain Lohkar 1

 

Knowledge: Vision and Specialization

Knowledge in the academic sense covers the whole gamut of various disciplines pursued in academic institutions. In our age of specialization, these disciplines seems to have attained independent status to an extent that the very purpose of acquiring knowledge may be defeated. In the obsession of more and more specialization, we have perhaps forgotten to remember thal the realms of various disciplines are so closely linked that we cannot afford the consequences of losing insights into the developments of other specializations.

Our age-old considered vision of education and knowledge was freedom from the bondage physical, mental, or spiritual Whether it is broad categorization of knowledge into various disciplines or subjects or increasing specialization within the subjects, it is imperative that the seeker of knowledge is always aware of the findings of other branches of specializations to test his own findings for consistency: without such moderation, the outcome of uncoordinated results of various specializations will no longer be able to promote the cause of knowledge or to the collective Wisdom of the society: in fact it may even adversely affect them.

  1. 337-A Mumfordganj, Prayagraj 211000, E-mail: ramlohkar@gmail.com
 
 

Estimating the Real Impact of Devaluation on an
Economy: The Case of the NAIRA


Rex. O. Aruofor1 and Mrs. Flourence. E. Okungbowa2

 

Economists worldwide are generally of the opinion that exchange rate management is a crucial tool for achieving macroeconomic stability, maintaining a favorable external revenue and promoting investment in the home country Since the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in Nigeria in 1986 by the IMF/World Bank, the fortunes of the Nigerian economy had been mixed with high level of poverty and employment becoming a source of worry. The protagonists of SAP argued that a devaluation policy will no only promote exports and investment but also a positive balance of payments. Among the measures employed by SAP a major policy thrust was the Second Tier Foreign Exchange Market (SFEM), which favored a depreciation rate in the Naira from 1986 to 2004, with a view to promote exports, especially non-oil exports which has been elusive since then. The reactions of practitioners on SAP have been mixed and it is not quite obvious to what extent the objectives of SAP were achieved This study, focuses exclusively on devaluation and evaluates its real impact on the Nigerian economy, using the data between 1987 and 2013, with the total differential approach The real impact of devaluation on the Nigerian economy indicates a major shift in the consumption pattern of Nigerians, which fell by N15932.5 million; the absolute poor which increased by 90,000 people annually, unemployment and inflation which grew concurrently by 3.56% and 16% respectively and a general decline in trade, Foreign direct investment, general well being and increase in corruption to the tune of N13 million per annum. From all indication, empirical evidence seem to support the claim that the negative impact of devaluation tends to outweigh any gains that could accrue, especially in a developing economy like Nigeria.

  1. Rex O. Aruofor is a Professor of Resource Economics, quantitative technique and economic planning in the Department of Economics. Banking and Finance, Benson Idahosa University. Benin City. Nigeria
  2. Mrs Flourence E. Okungbowa is a Lecturer in the Department of Economics. Banking and Finance, Benson Idahosa University, Benin City. Nigeria
 
 

Tourism and Economic Growth in India: An Empirical
Analysis

Aruna Kumar Dash 1
Aviral Kumar Tiwari2
Pradeep Kumar Singh3

 

Recently researchers have been interested in the relationship between tourism and economic growth. The main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of tourism on the economic growth of India over the period of 1973 2013 by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that, tourists have a positive impact on the economic growth of India in both short-run and long run In addition, physical and human capital has positive effects on economic growth, while depreciation of the exchange rate will promote economic growth only in short run but not in long-run. Our study supports the tourism led growth hypothesis so far as India is concerned. Therefore, there is a need of policy intervention, where government should frame the tourism policy in such a way that it would attract progressive tourist arrival to India than in turn would impact economic growth in a sustainable manner.

Key Words: Tourism, Economic Growth, ARDL Model, India.

JEL Classification : C32; L83; O40

  1. Associate Professor, Department of Economics. IBS Hyderabad. IFHE University Hyderabad, India. Email: akdash@ibsindia.org
  2. Associate Professor, Department of Economics. IBS Hyderabad. IFHE University Hyderabad, India. Email: aviral.eco@gmail.com
  3. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, India. Email: pradeepbpo1990@gmail.com
 
 

Exports and Employment in Afghanistan:
An Econometric Model Using (ARDL)
Bounds Test Approach

Rahmatullah Pashtoon1
Zmarai Maiwandwal2
Abdul Ahad Zahid 3

 

Assimilation into the world economy and trade is essential for development, employment, and poverty eradication Therefore, employment in the recent economic era brough out to be a burning issue in the emerging economies. Employment has social, economic and environmental relations in any society. The improvement of export initiatives can boost the employment level up to a new rise The main focus of this study is to find out the impact of exports of goods and services on the labor force of Afghanistan by applying the bounds Testing (ARDL) approach to Cointegration for the period 20042016 The Tests suggest that the variable of exports of goods and services is bound together in the long-run when employment is the dependent level. The associated equilibrium correction was also significant confirming the existence of the long-run relationship. The results also indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from exports to employment and vice-versa. In addition, all diagnostic tests met the requirement of no rejection of null hypotheses such as using no specification, Ramsey's RESET test, Jarque-Bera test, and White Heteroskedasticity test. Moreover, the CUSUM and CUSUM square test shows that the model is structurally not stable. The study suggests various postulations such as supporting more investment in various sectors of the economy by providing loans, banking facilities and incentives and tax relief for manufacturers that provide employment. Notwithstanding, the study also proposes such productive and supportive policies for trade and foreign sectors to encourage the increase of exports.

Key Words: Economy, Employment, Export, ARDL.

JEL Classification : 053, C22, J30, J64, E31

  1. Asst. Prof, HoD, National Economics Dept Economics Faculty, Kandahar University External Peer Reviewer- Ministry of Higher Education, Afghanistan.
    Email rpashtoon@hotmail.com
  2. Asst. Prof. HoD, Management and Enterprise Dept. Faculty of Economics. Kandahar University.
    Email ghamynoori@gmail.com
  3. Asst Prof. Director of Quality Assurance Department, Kandahar University.
    Email: zahid.kdr@gmail.com
 
 

Digitalization of Economy and Demonetization Shock in
India A General Perspective from Common Masses


Narayan Sethi1; Shravanth J2;
Devi Prasad Dash3; Padmaja Bhujabal4;  

The entententication even spark special interest in the policy circle in terms of tackling the black money issue. This brief article focuses on the current evidence of effect of demonetisation pon xeneral output and black money. We nurther de the relevance of 2000 Rupees in terms of tackling black money. We also give a brief discussion of relevance of digitalization amidst the demonetization move and argue that digitalization may not be as effective as thought by the government at the immediate launch particularly for the unorganized sector We ultimately conclude with the policy suggestion that digitization wave might take certain time to cleanse the economic system,unless clement of proper digital literacy is instilled among the common masses.

Keywords: Demonetization Cashless Economy: black money, organized sector digitalization.

JEL Code : E50, E57, O17

  1. Associate Professor, Dept. of Humanities and Social Sciences, National Institute of Technology (NIT) Rourkela, Odisha, India.
    Email: nsethinarayan@gmail.com
  2. M.Se Student, Dept. of Economics, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry 605014
    Email: jshravanth17@gmail.com
  3. Research Scholar, Dept. of Humanities and Social Sciences. Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Ropar, Punjab, India
    Email: devi100.dash@gmail.com
  4. Research Scholar, Dept. of Humanities and Social Sciences, National Institute of Technology (NIT) Rourkela, Odisha, India,
    Email- padmaja.1806@gmail.com
 
 

Nexus of Total Factor Productivity, IT and Skills:
A Literature Review


Awadhes Pratap Singh1
 

The contribution of the information and technology (IT) to Indian economy is well acknowledged In this context, the study carries out a comprehensive literature review to find Linkages among IT, skills and productivity. Results indicate that majority of the studies support the hypothesis that IT promotes productivity and skills plays the role of an enabler The study also reveals three preconditions to accept the nexus. First, it takes time to establish the IT infrastructure and skill building and therefore time lag plays an important part. Second, it is important to have skilled workforce and people practices to reap the benefit of IT and turn them into higher productivity. Third and finally, the maturity of IT adoption is precursor for IT implementation and skill building.

  1. Ph.D., Indian Institute of Management, Lucknow Email-efpmo2oo5@iiml.ac.in
 
 

Poverty in Odisha: An Analysis of Inclusiveness
 

Priyabrata Sahoo1
 

Odisha recorded a faster reduction in poverty both in rural and urban regions during 2004-05 to 2011-12 in comparison to the period 1993-94 to 2004-05. The paper is an attempt to study the inclusiveness of poverty reduction by looking the poverty among social groups, economic groups, and the NSS regions. The coastal region of Odisha has seen a higher decline in poverty followed by northern and southern. It is the ST.SC and Agricultural labour and Causal Labour who are the vulnerable groups in Odisha and are having high poverty HCR. It is the ST in the rural areas and SC in urban areas for whom the poverty has been increasing over the year. In the urban area around fifty percentage of the self employed population are poor whereas in the rural areas it's the casual and agricultural labour who are more deprived. Though there is a faster reduction in poverty, it has confined to specific regions and certain socio-economic groups raising questions on the inclusiveness of poverty reduction in the post reform Odisha.

Key Words: Poverty, Inclusiveness, Socio-Economic Groups, Rural, Urban, Odisha.

  1. Research Scholar, School of Economics, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, Telangana.
    Email: priyabratasahoo08@gmail.com
 
 

Doubling Farmers Income: The Case of India  


Rohit Singh1

 

Agriculture, in most of the developing and under-developed countries, is the primary sector responsible for employment and livelihood of majority of population, especially rural. This sector is entrusted with the responsibility of poverty alleviation in rural areas and contribution to overall economic growth. Hence, designing optimal policy and setting objectives have always been a concern area for the policy makers. In the last fiscal year, policy objective of doubling farmer income by the year 2022, was announced by the government. This paper analyses the historical aspects of doubling of farmers income using NSSO situation assessment survey and draws projection for the future a degenerate level across land holding and states. What actually would it require to double the farmer's income, the optimal mix of policies that should be adopted by the government for successful achievement of objective? The paper also presents a comparative analysis with such policy objective being successfully achieved in Chinese economy.

Key words: Doubling of farmers income, NSSO situation assessment survey, policy mix in agriculture sector

JEL Classification : Q10, Q12, 018

  1. Assistant Professor, Department of Social Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Rajiv Gandhi National Institute of Youth Development (RGNIYD), Sriperabudur, Kanchipuram District-602105,
    Email: srohit0434@gmail.com; or rohitsingh@ipu.ac.in
 
 

The Effects of Oil Price Shock on the
Indian Economy- A Study
 


Nenavath Sreenu1

The paper examine the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP growth for the period of 2010 till 2018. The present Indian economy growth has been facing the identical issues of escalating the trade disparity and continuing inflation In this paper, the study focused on the determine relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth. Further the paper investigated as how oil price variations effect on the Indian economy development through different networks viz. WPI. CP, IP, GDP. Monetary policy. real sector external trade, investment and exchange rate. The paper used an autoregressive Conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets and then developed an extension of the GARCH-M mean, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators and the outcomes of co integration model propose that crude oil is procyclical to output, stock market, Interest rate price level, and foreigen exchange funds, although it is counter-cyclical to exchange rate, money supply and net exports. As well, it is found that the crude oil Granger causes output, export and common crude oil price level. On the other hand, the research paper used vector autoregression (VAR) investigation and surveys the discrepancy decomposition to capture the linear inter dependencies among the variables (WPI, CP, IP, gdp. monetary policy, real sector, external trade, investment and exchange rate). The mechanical stability experiments determine that there is no indication of mechanical break in the vector autoregressive model, authorising the dependability of expected associations underneath the vector auto-regression analysis.

Key Words: Fluctuations, Price, WPI, IIP, GDP and shocks.

  1. Assistant Professor in Financial Management. Department of Business Management Indira Gandhi National Tribal University (A Central University). Lalpur, Amarkantak Madhya Pradesh 484887, India
    Email: sri_cbm@yahoo.com