Contents
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Reforms 2.0 viz-a-viz Political Consensus
Vinay K. Srivastava1
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The indirect tax regime of GST has completed two years on
July 1, 2019. It has replaced multi-layered, complex indirect
tax structure with a simple tax regime. It took a long time to
come into existence. It got delayed because of a number of
hurdles. One of the major hurdles was political consensus.
There is no correlation between politics and reforms. It is a
big challenge to create political consensus among the
political parties. Political parties are aware that an
economic reform is necessary for the rapid growth of the
country. But, due to their vote bank they do not support it
whenever they are in opposition. The present paper is an
attempt to discuss the consensus of political parties for the
implementation of new Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the
country. The paper discusses how BJP led NDA opposed
CAB-2011 of Congress led UPA-II and how Congress that
initiated GST bill opposed CAB-2014 of BJP led NDA-II
Key Words: GST, Political consensus, Constitution
Amendment Bill, Politics, Economic Reforms
- Associate Professor at I.T.S Ghaziabad, Sector-6, 6/160, F-2, Vaishali, Ghaziabad-201010
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Status of Migration Among Tribal Workers After
Economic Reform:
A Case Study of West Champaran
District of Bihar State in India
Dharmnath Uraon1
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After the completion of 28 years of economic reform the
principal goal of holistic development with equality is
unattended. The horizontal and vertical inequalities are not
cracked till the date especially in laborer class. The massive
out migration of tribal labours for their livelihoods from
rural to urban areas or one state to another state has
increased at an enormous rate after reform period in India
especially in the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh state of the
country. This indicates that most of the developed regions of
India are utilizing labour force of backward areas. A
detailed investigation of labour out-migration was done in
the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to study its
determinants of migration and their impacts on farm
economy. This study is trying to reveal ground root reality of
the socio-economic factors of migration of tribal labours and
its nature regarding frequencies with different places of the
country of surplus unskilled, semi skilled and skilled labour
after the new economic reform era in the study area. They
have faced lots of difficulties in choosing the places and
work. The determinants analysis shows that number of
members in the family and their education status had a
positive impact on migration. This paper is based on primary
data sources, which are supplemented by the secondary
sources and other relevant sources. The paper has been
divided in five sections, first one is introduction and relevant
studies, second part is objective of the study and
methodology, then third is data analysis, fourth part is based
on findings with conclusion and last section comprises
suggestions for betterment of the respondents of the study
area
Key Words: Socio-Economic, ground root tribal communities, out-migration, surplus of unskilled labour,
Betterment.
- Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj
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Estimating Technical Efficiency and its Determinants
A Study
of Saffron Cultivation in District Budgam
of Jammu and Kashmir
Imtiyaz Ul Haq 1
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Saffron cultivation in the state of Jammu and Kashmir is an
ancient agricultural activity placing India as the second
largest producer of saffron in the world. During the year
2009-10 National Saffron Mission was launched to boost this
vital sector of the economy in view of its deteriorating trends
in area, production and productivity. Because of its socioeconomic and cultural significance, it was also declared as
heritage site by the Food and Agricultural Organization.
This study pertains to district Budgam, the second largest
producer of saffron in the state, in which an attempt has been
made to examine the performance of saffron growing farmers
by introducing the concept of technical efficiency. It,
particularly, investigates the extent to which the saffron
growers have been able to realize the potential of new
technology brought under the National Saffron Mission.
Technical efficiency analysis has been carried out with the
help of FRONTIER 4.1 computer programme by specifying
Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function on a
cross-section data generated from a sample of 90 saffron
cultivating farmers selected randomly from 6 villages of the
two only saffron producing blocks of the district. The results
suggest that on an average saffron farming in the district is
only 46 per cent technically efficient ranging between a low of and a high of 9 per cent and 89 per cent respectively.
Whole-time specialist farmers and the households with
higher number of farm workers are technically less
inefficient in contrast to their counterparts. Inefficiency tends
to increase with the increase in percentage of saffron land,
degree of fragmentation, distance of farms and household
income levels.
Key Words: Kashmir Valley, Saffron, Cobb-Douglas
Production Function, Stochastic Frontier Analysis,
Technical Efficiency.
- Associate Professor (Principal Investigator), Department of Economics, University of
Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir-190006. E-mail : imtiyaz786haq@gmail.com
Acknowledgement : This research paper is the outcome of a Major Research Project titled,
Allocative and Technical Efficiency in Saffron Cultivation in Kashmir Valley funded by
the University Grants Commission (UGC), Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi, India.
In writing this research paper the author acknowledges support received from the Project
Fellow Mr. Asif Tariq and the saffron growing farmers who cooperated with our team in
generating the data
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Does Health Expenditure Predict Economic Growth
in Nigeria?
Osobase, A. O. 1
Bakare-Aremu, T. A. 2
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Health is an unique item that can promote economic growth
if there is an increasing number of healthy human resource
among the active population. It is argued that a society with
more healthy economic active population will be more
productive than a nation with unhealthy productive
individuals. Based on this assertion, this study investigates
the impact of health expenditure on economic growth in
Nigeria using secondary data from 1981-2018. The data
include; Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Gross Fixed
Capital Formation (GFCF), Aggregate Health Expenditure
(AHE), Secondary School Enrolment (SSE) and economic
active population (PPT; Ages 15-60). The empirical
techniques includes descriptive statistics, Unit root tests,
ECM, Granger causality test, Inverse Root of Autoregressive
(AR), Q-statistics and Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation
tests. The findings from the ECM outcome revealed that at
lagged three, only lagged value of RGDP(-2), AHE and SSE
significantly predicted RGDP in Nigeria. In addition, the
ECM t-statistics result was statistically significant which
prompt the estimation of the Granger causality test. The
causal result reveals that there is a one-way causal
relationship that runs from RGDP to AHE, GCF, SSE
without a feedback effect. Furthermore, the Inverse Root of
Autoregressive (AR) result depicted that all the polynomial
roots, except one, lies outside the unit circle, and this implies
that both the IRF and the variance decomposition tests are
relatively stable and can be utilize as a basis for temporary
policy analysis. Lastly, the Q-statistics and Breusch-Godfrey
serial correlation tests indicated that the model is free from serial correlation. Based on the outcomes of the study, it is
re-stated that the Nigeria government needs to increase the
budgetary allocation to the health subsector for better
services delivery likewise, there is the need for better welfare
package and remuneration for health care workers to
discourage the incessant brain drain issues.
Key Words: Health Expenditure, Economic Growth, ECM,
Granger Causality Test.
JEL Classification Code: H5, F43, I1
- Research Fellow and Lecturer, Economics Department, Anchor University, Ayobo, Ipaja,
Lagos State, Nigeria.
- Department of Economics, National Open University of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria.
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Extent of Deprivation of Tea Garden Labourer in
Plantations of Different Classification: A Study of
Dibrugarh District of Assam
Pradyut Guha 1
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Through a carefully designed primary survey present study
made an attempt to examine the extent of deprivation of tea
garden labourer in plantations of different classification in
Dibrugarh district of Assam. Beside using Sens index the
Engels ratio was estimated separately for food and non food
items of consumption for understanding the level of
deprivation among labourer in different classification of tea
plantations. There seems to be the moderately high incidence
of poverty among the tea garden labourers across the
classified tea plantations of the study area with larger share
of budget being spent on nourishment. The deprivation level
among the labourer seemed to be directly linked to the size of
the garden they were engaged in. Low literacy level of
labourer constrained the occupational mobility and
engagement for supplementary earning of adult dependents.
Beside beneficiary of agricultural land as a supplementary
earning source the labourer in small size gardens artificially
escaped poverty through borrowing of loans which was
avoided by the labourers in large size gardens thereby
remained under the poverty line in the study area. In
addition extent of deprivation among the families to some
extent seems to be correlated with inequality in consumption
expenditure. Since management of a particular classified
pattern of tea plantation provides no assurance offering low
lying unutilised land for agriculture or animal husbandry
activities of labour household. Hence, public initiatives on
training and skill development program through vocational
and technical education, awareness on entrepreneurship may
help the adult dependents of the labour households in finding engagement outside tea plantation supplementary earning
activities thereby influencing their consumption pattern in
the study area.
Keywords: Labourer, MPCE, Poverty line, Deprivation
JEL Codes: I32, J31, D630
- Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Sikkim University, 6th Mile, Samdur,
Tadong, Gangtok, Sikkim. E-mail: pguha@cus.ac.in
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Impact of Economic Indicators on Passenger and
Commercial Vehicle Stocks Returns
Rama Krishna Yelamanchili 1
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In this paper, we aim to study the influence of economic
indicators on automobile stocks returns. We chose four
passenger and commercial vehicle manufacturers stocks
listed in BSE SENSEX and collect monthly stock prices data
from April 2012 to June 2019. On the other side, we collect
monthly data for four economic indicators of which two are
coincident indicators and two are leading indicators. We
split sample period into growth years (2012-2017) and
decline years (2018-19) and perform data analysis. Results
reveal that automobile stocks returns are positive and
phenomenal till 2017 and since then negative. We find that
during first sample period automotive stocks are very
aggressive and outperform both the leading indicators. We
also find that there is no relationship between automobile
stocks returns and coincident indicators. For second sample
period we find that automobile stocks have negative
relationship with manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and
semi-trailers Index (MMVI). Results of causality tests
indicate that AUTO index Granger cause SENSEX with three
period lag, and manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and
semi-trailers Index Granger cause AUTO index with one and
two lag periods during 2012-17. During second sample
period, we observe that SENSEX Granger cause MMVI with
two lags. Results also indicate that during 2012-17 Indian
automobile manufacturers drive Indian stock markets and
since 2018 even though the BSE SENSEX grow, AUTO index
and auto stocks returns decline. We observe that decline in
automobile stocks returns gradually affect MMVI and cause
slowdown in industrial production and economic
development.
Keywords: Auto sector, Economic Development, IIP,
economic indicators, Government Policy.
JEL Code: G17, G18, O14, O25
- Associate Professor, Department of Finance & Accounting, ICFAI Business School,
IFHE, Dhonthanapalli, Shankarpalli, Hyderabad, Telangana, India.
Email: yrk@ibsindia.org
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Dynamics of Phillips Curve in Indian Economy:
An Empirical Analysis
Narendra K. Bishnoi1
Manoj Kumar2
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Keeping inflation down to pull down the growth rate of the
economy, and therefore, recent slowdown may be the result
of control on inflation. This issue is critical, therefore, this
analysis regarding to examine the existence of Phillips Curve
in Indian economy. For the modelled equations of Phillips
curve, quarterly data of GDP from Central Statistical Office
for the period 1996-2019 for India has been used. The
sources for the data on unemployment do not provide
comprehensive, regular and uniform defined data on the rate
of unemployment. Therefore, Okuns Law has been used to
estimate the relevant values unemployment indirectly.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Parron tests have
been applied to avoid spurious regression. Granger
Causality test has been also employed to confirm the
functional causal relationship. All the significant coefficient
of OLS of different time periods proves the existence of shortrun Phillips Curve. It means that the inflation and expected
inflation helps to reduce the gap between actual output
growth and trend-growth of output in India, which reduces
the cyclical voluntary unemployment. The results of the study
may tempt one to draw the inference that by relaxing the
inflation target, India can improve its growth performance
by enhancing the productive capacity of the economy.
Keywords: Inflation, Expected Inflation, Unemployment,
Rate of Recovery.
- Professor, Department of Economics, GJUS&T, Hissar.
E-mail: nkbishnoi123@gmail.com
- Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, GJUS&T, Hissar.
E-mail : manojkumareconomics@gmail.com
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Social Capital and Life Satisfaction: A Panel Data
Analysis of the Moderation Effects of Trust and
Sociability on Income and Relative Comparison in the
Relationship between Money and Happiness in India.
T. Lakshmanasamy1
K. Maya2
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This paper empirically examines the role of social capital in
terms of trust and sociability in explaining the incomehappiness relationship in India using the World Value Survey
data for the period 1990-2014. The estimated cross-section and
panel data results show that the direct effect of social capital on
life satisfaction is insignificant relative to the effect of relative
income and rank income in India. At the individual level, the
estimated indirect effect of social capital, operating through the
interaction of social capital with both absolute and relative
incomes, reveals that social capital moderates the negative
impact of reference income on life satisfaction. At the aggregate
state level, social capital incompletely moderates the
importance of material well-being on subjective well-being. In
developing and less developed states, social capital has no
direct effect but has some indirect effect on life satisfaction. In
developed states, there is no moderating effect of social capital
on life satisfaction is absent. Although the moderation effect of
social capital on happiness is not complete, still material wellbeing significantly influences life satisfaction in India,
irrespective of the time frame and alternative measures of
subjective well-being. The scarcity interpersonal trust and low
quality of sociability are not proximate to the level of well-being
in India and the concern for materialism still dominates the
Indians interest for money.
Keywords: social capital, trust, networks, life satisfaction,
moderation effect, decomposition.
JEL Classification: C23, I3, P36
- Professor, Department of Econometrics, University of Madras, Chennai.
E-mail: tlsamy@unom.ac.in; tlsamy@yahoo.co.in
- Research Scholar, Department of Econometrics, University of Madras, Chennai.
E-mail: mayapalakkal89@gmail.com
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Nigerian Federalism: Health and Poverty in Nigeria
Sylvester Ohiomu 1
Blessing Ose Oligbi 2
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This paper examined the evolution, structure, and practices
of federalism in Nigeria to synthesize the extent to which
fiscal federalism in conjunction with agitations for resource
control has affected the health and poverty profiles of the
citizenry in relation to economic growth and sustainable
development. In achieving this, the paper adopted both
descriptive and analytical methods by relying on secondary
sources for data gathering with a well-researched literature
to discuss the interface between these concepts and identify
strategies for solution with robust policy recommendations.
This research was, therefore, intended to fill the strategic
intellectual gap on the subject matter. The findings showed
that the dependence of the local government on the states
and federal government allocation has led to its inability to
positively affect the grass-root health care development
while poverty alleviation is threatened. The paper also
revealed that Nigeria has not operated as a true federation
since it adopted a federal constitution. Fiscal responsibility
and taxing powers still remain considerably centralized. The
paper, therefore, concluded that the federal government
ought to devolve some of its tax powers to state governments
in order to stimulate healthy fiscal independence and
competition among states. Based on the findings, it was
recommended that the current revenue allocation formula
and fiscal federalism should be reviewed to embrace
autonomy in its entirety in order to achieve national goals
and objectives. Government should engage the interest
groups on resource control in dialogue for peaceful
resolution and proactively offer optimal solution. Direct
schemes and workable measures for improved health care
development and poverty alleviation should be put in place.
Key Words: Agitation, Federalism, Health Profile, Poverty
Prevalence.
JEL Classification: C22, C32, C58
- PhD, Department of Economics and Development Studies, Igbinedion University, Okada,
Edo State, Nigeria, Email: sylvester.ohiomu@iuokada.edu.ng, ohmsylve2@gmail.com
- PhD, Department of Economics and Development Studies, Igbinedion University, Okada,
Edo State, Nigeria, Email: blessing.oligbi@iuokada.edu.ng, blessingoligbi2@gmail.com
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Multidimensional Poverty Analysis using Fuzzy Logic:
A Study of Districts of Uttar Pradesh
Krishnendu Das 1
Prankrishna Pal 2
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Poverty is a Multidimensional phenomenon and it is
necessary to incorporate proper dimensions with precision.
Sabina Alkire has done a remarkable work in the field of
Multidimensional Poverty Index. The proposed methodology
for Multidimensional Poverty Index by Alikre is very useful
in the aggregate sense but it lacks the individual
representation and precision. As Prof S. R. Chakrabarty
describes, it is very difficult to judge whether a person is
deprived in any of the indicators or the sub-indicators so
precisely. So nature deprivation is intrinsically Fuzzy. Many
other scholars have described that the information provided
by any person regarding his/her deprivation is basically a
ranking which is fuzzy in nature. We tried to extend the
existing methodology by Alikre to incorporate specific
representation of different deprivation among different
individuals (rural/urban). We used Fuzzy logic to this
extended Multidimensional Poverty analysis for the
representation of the individuals. As poverty is
multidimensional it requires different specific indicators as
well as sub-indicators with proper division of weights to
capture the micro aspect of poverty. We calculated the Fuzzy
Deprivation Membership value for the specific subindicators and applied the weights predefined by Alkire. We
used mainly NFHS-4 (2015-16)unit level household data for
our calculation. We applied our extended methodology in the
for different districts of Uttar Pradesh for the calculation of
MPI* (Fuzzy Multidimensional Poverty Index).
- Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Lalbaba College (Calcutta University),
Belur, Howrah. E-mail: krishnendudas20@gmail.com
- Professor, Dept. of Economics, Rabindra Bharati University.
E-mail: pk61@rediffmail.com
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