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Using Neural Networks to Forecast Taiwan
Stock Index Option Prices
Chin-Tsai Lin*
and
Hsin-Yi Yeh**
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This study forecasts
the option prices of Taiwan stock index
options using backpropagation neural
networks and Black-Scholes pricing model.
The research data comprises the daily
prices of sample options for the period
from 2 January 2002 to 31 December 2003.
The empirical evidence reveals that in a
volatile market a neural network option
pricing model out performs the traditional
Black-Scholes model.
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Energy Consumption Pattern
in the SAARC Region
Amal Sarkar *
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This paper compares energy consumption
pattern of the SAARC countries using past
data. The paper discusses growth rates of
commercial energy consumption during
1973-1994 using time-trend model and the
estimated results show that despite
oil-price shock of seventies, the growth
of commercial energy consumption is still
high in this region. Then, using
regression analysis, energy-GDP elasticity
has been estimated for individual SAARC
countries as well as other groups of
countries of the world. The result shows
that energy-GDP elasticity is very high
for the SAARC countries whereas for the
developed countries, the value of
elasticity is relatively low. The paper
also makes forecast of energy consumption
for the period 2001 to 2005. Finally, the
paper investigates some possible areas of
regional cooperation.
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The Determinants and Impacts of
Foreign Direct Investments on Economic
Growth in Developing Countries:
A study of Nigeria
Salisu, Afees A.*
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This
paper examines the determinants and
impacts of Foreign Direct Investments on
economic growth in Developing Countries
using Nigeria as a case study. The study
utilized both simple and multiple
regression methods of data analysis. It
was found that inflation, debt burden and
exchange rate significantly influence
Foreign Direct Investment Flows into
Nigeria. The study equally gathered that
the contribution of FDI to economic growth
in Nigeria was very low even though it was
perceived to be a significant factor
influencing the level of economic growth
in Nigeria.
The paper, therefore, urges the government
to pursue prudent fiscal and monetary
policies that will be geared towards
attracting more FDI and enh.ancing overall
domestic productivity, ensure improvements
in infrastructural facilities and to put a
stop to the incessant social unrests in
the country.
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Globalisation and Industrial Development
in
Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation
R. O. Salawu *
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This study examined the relationship
between globalization and industrial
development in the Nigerian economy for
the period of 1970-2000. The objective
of the study was to examine the relative
impacts of globalization on industrial
development.
The data used for the study were
collected from the Central bank of
Nigeria's (CBN) Statistical Bulletin
(2001) and Annual Report and Statement
of Account (2002). The above objective
was achieved using both descriptive
statistical analysis and econometric
techniques. The result showed that
globalization has grown at a faster rate
than real output, a high correlation
exists between globalisation and
industrial development.
The conclusion that emerged from the
study is that globalization has been
impacting positively impacted industrial
development in Nigeria. The policy
recommendation is that government should
continue to ensure appropriate policies
that will continually enhance the
realization of the much-expected
benefits of globalization in Nigeria.
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Comparison of Economic Efficiency
Estimation Methods: An Application
to Taiwan's Life Insurance Industry
James C. Hao *
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I
employ a wide range of parametric and
non-parametric cost frontiers efficiency
estimation methods to estimate economic
efficiency and economics of scale, using
panel data of 25 Taiwanese life insurance
companies over the period 1980-2002.
According to my empirical implementation,
the two methodologies yield similar
average efficiency estimates, yet they
come to different results pertaining to
efficiency rankings, the stability of
measured efficiency over time, the
conspiracy between frontier efficiency and
conventional performance measures, and the
estimates of scale economies. Thus, the
choice of an estimation approach can
result in different conclusions and policy
implications regarding cost efficiencies
and cost economies. These findings suggest
that making policy decisions and
evaluations relies on multiple techniques
and specifications.
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Politico-Economic Issues of Outsourcing
Himanshu Tandon*
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Global outsourcing is not a new concept in
itself; it, however, has come in spotlight
during the last decade of the 20th
century, more importantly with the
phenomenon being applied as it is to the
services.
The outsourcing of services has been long
studied, the present paper intends to put
in perspective the socio-economic and
political issues confronting the
phenomenon of global outsourcing. The
paper traces the origins of the concept to
its present connotation of offshore
outsourcing in the services sector. The
paper presents a macro view on
the contemporary issues and delves further
to find answers to the questions posed and
combines them with visa regulations, and
political considerations.
"Specialization according to Comparative
Advantage" is "both true and not Trivial
in Economics" Paul Samuelson (anecdote)
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Performance of Agriculture
in the Changing Structure of the
Orissa Economy: A Panel Data Evidence
Manoranjan Pattanayak
Bibbu Prasad Navak
Piyusb Saluja
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In
the post-reform era of India, significant
growth has been achieved in many areas at
the cost of equality. The manufacturing
and service sector has gained in several
ways. But, the primary sector became the
victim. In this bizarre way of reform, not
only the output and productivity level of
agriculture has gone down but also inter
and intra regional inequality has been
widened. This paper discusses the nature
of structured change in a state of India,
i.e., Orissa. The trends in the changing
share of the different sectors to Gross
State Domestic Product have been analyzed.
As the major focus of the study is
agriculture, district wise agricultural
productivity has been measured. An attempt
has been made to explain the
inter-districts differences in
productivity in terms of input use. Using
an empirical model, the importance of
several inputs has been examined.
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Irrigation Subsidies in India:
Some Observations
C. Bhujanga Rao *
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This paper brings out an overview of
developments in irrigation sector and the
problems that still lay ahead. It
summarizes the various observation made by
the Finance Commissions. The magnitude of
irrigations subsidies are presented and
compared with the earlier estimates. There
is a need to bring down the magnitude of
irrigations
subsidies. A significant part of the
irrigation subsidy goes to finance excess
staff. There is need to prune the existing
staff strength, reduce costs and augment
recoveries. The recovery rates have been
coming down over the years. Irrigation
subsidies account for more than one
percent of GDP.
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Estimation of Supply Functions for
Himachal Apples
R. S. Prasher *,
Manjusha Thomas **
and
Y. S. Negi **
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Present study has
attempted to quantify the role of price
and non-price factors responsible for
short and long-run supply of apple in
Himachal Pradesh. The study identified
long-run parity price expectation, yield
expectation and road length as the most
important factors which had induced the
orchardists to take up apple plantation in
Himachal Pradesh. One per cent increase in
these factors will lead to 2.35 per cent
increase in the area under apple
plantation. The study also provides
conclusive evidence that the terms of
trade is against apple industry both in
short and long-run; thus, appropriate
policy measures are required to tackle the
existing situation. Measures which help in
improving the pricing efficiency needs to
be introduced. Price also emerged as
another important factor considered by the
orchardists while taking decision for
apple plantation Thus, the price policy is
equally relevant in case of perenqial
fruit crops as is for annual crops, and
could be used as an instrument for
horticultural development. |
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