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Special Centennial Issue

No. 390

January 2018


ISSN 0019-5170



Estimating The Real Impact of Devaluation on An Economy: The Case of The NAIRA

Mrs. Flourence. E. Okungbowa2


Economists worldwide are generally of the opinion that exchange rate management is a crucial tool for achieving macroeconomic stability, maintaining a favorable external revenue and promoting investment in the home country Since the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in Nigeria in 1986 by the IMF/World Bank, the fortunes of the Nigerian economy had been mixed, with high level of poverty and unemployment becoming a source of worry, The protagonists of SAP argued that a devaluation policy will not only promote exports and investment but also a positive balance of payments. Among the measures employed by SAP, a major policy thrust was the Second Tier Foreign Exchange Market (SFEM), which favored a depreciation rate in the Naira from 1986 to 2004, with a view to promote exports, especially non-oil exports, which has been elusive since then The reactions of practitioners on SAP have been mixed and it is not quite obvious to what extent the objectives of SAP were achieved This study, focuses exclusively on devaluation and evaluates its real impact on the Nigerian economy, using the data between 1981 and 2013. with the total differential approach The real impact of devaluation on the Nigerian economy indicates a major shift in the consumption pattern of Nigerians, which fell by NIS932 5 million; the absolute poor which increased by 90,000 people annually unemployment and inflation which grew concurrently by 3.56% and 16 respectively and a general decline in trade. Foreign direct investment, general well being and increase in corruption to the une of 1/3 million per annum From all indication, empirical evidence seem to support the claim that the negative impact of devaluation tends to outweigh any gains that could accrue, especially in a developing economy bike Nigeria

  1. Professor of resource economics, quantitative technique and economic planning in the Department of Economics, Banking and Finance, Benson Idahosa University, Benin City, Nigeria.
  2. Lecturer in the Department of Economics. Banking and Finance Benson Idahosa University, Benin City, Nigeria

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A Structural Macro-Econometric Model of India
incorporating Black Income: Estimation and Policy

Dr. Tirtha Prasad Sinha1


Black income is presently the most important economic issue in India. This study is probably the first one to demonstrate empirically its macroeconomic impact on consumption investment interest rate and inflation rate in India in a simultaneous equations framework. Increases in tax rate government expenditure and trade deficit are likely to increase black income in India. Black income statistically impacts consumption, investment interest rate, and inflation rate, and with reservation probably the money supply through its impact on the stock of base money. Thar black income in India could be influencing money supply is a possibility that cannot be disregarded altogether. Policy measures such as reductions in effective tax rate and government expenditure are likely to curb the growth of black income in the economy.

Key Words:Black Income, Simultaneous Equations.Simulations Structural Model

JEL Classification : C39, C52, E26, H26, O17

  1. Associate Professor, Dept of Economics. S.S.N College University of Delhi-110089 Email:

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Demographic Transition, Demographic Dividend and
Economic Growth in India:
A Critical Analysis at Sub-National Level

Gargi Bhattacharya1 and Sushil K. Haldar2


Using Census data, the present study tries to explore the role of labour by decomposing the growth of per capita Net State Domestic Product (PCNSDP) into three components viz. growth of average productivity of labor, growth of the share of working age population and growth of labor force participation rate across 15 major states over 19712017 in India. The most contributing factors of growth of PCNSDP are found to be growth of labor productivity followed by the growth of the share of working age population contribution of the growth of labor force is found to be extremely low Data on health, educational outcomes and labour force participation especially female labour force across the states do not provide sufficient hope towards proper realization of demographic dividend.

Key Words: Demographic Dividend, Work Force,Participation Rate, Female Literacy Rate, Fertility.

JEL Classification : J10, J 11,J 21

  1. Assistant Professor Economics Department, Mahadevananda Mahavidyalaya. Barrackpore Kolkata-700120.India Email:
  2. Professor, Department of Economics,Jadavpur University, Kolkata-700032. India Email:

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Macroeconomic Factors Causing Variations in the
Exchange Rate of BRICS Countries- A Study

Dr. Sangeeta Shirodkar1
Karan Fernades2  

This paper is directed towards a study into, what factors affect the movements in the exchange value of the BRICS countries against the US Dollar. The value of a domestic currency is of immense significance. Therefore, it is necessary to study and analyse various parameters that cause variations in the value of a currency so as to be able to control such factors The study aims at analyzing the impact of select macro-economic variables on the exchange rate of the BRICS countries and identifies the prominent factors that influence the exchange rate of BRICS countries and also study the nature of the relationship between Exchange rates and select economic variables in the short run and long-run In order to achieve the objectives of the research, monthly data for a time period ranging from 20172016 has been analyzed using OLS model and Vector Error Correction Model. Johansens Cointegration test indicated that all the variables are cointegrated in the long-run. The results of VECM indicated that Russian Ruble was the only currency that was affected by the select variables in the long-run However in the short run the Russian Ruble was found to be affected by inflation rates, export rates and interest rates. Similarly interest rates had an impact on the Chinese Yuan and inflation rates had an impact on the Brazilian real in the short-run.

Key Words: :Exchange rates, BRICS, OLS. VECM.

  1. ASST Professor, Accountancy Department, D.M's College & Research Centre, Assagao:GOA-403 504
  2. D.M's College & Research Centre. Assagao. GOA-403 504

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FinTech-Exploring New Opportunities In India

Ajay Singh1

Technology is taking into stride the business environment like anything. Time span of applications of technologies have become short-lived as new applications are developing at Such a faster pace These changes have thrown open numerous opportunities on one hand and threats on another hand to any field related to human kind and business is not excluded. Technology evolution has given opportunities to varied applications in financial sector too. These technologies have provided such breakthrough in financial sector which was just unimaginable before. The applications of technology to capture, to process and analyze data in real time and offer solutions which was just beyond the thinking process of human being, is transforming how financial business can be performed, how products and services can be conceived and how consumers can participate in the process.

Financial Technology-FinTech-is disrupting the financial sector in tremendous way It has the potential to attain the goals of financial inclusion by reaching the unreached in a very convenient way and cost effective way. This disruption is forcing the traditional players of financial sector to assess their business model and come out with the new process and model to best serve their consumers who are also becoming technology savvy and knowledgeable.

Fin Tech cannot be just called as digitization of money rather it has more characteristics in it. One of the important characteristics of Financial Technology is that it is lowering down asymmetry of the information in the marketplace These technologies are bringing the investors, lenders and borrowers on the same level of platform in terms of knowledge, participation and transparency.Applications such as robo-advisory, block-chain and digital currencies are creating new business opportunities in financial services. Though financial sector is direct beneficiary of such evolution but effect is also clearly visible across the economy.

This paper tries to analyze the proliferation of FinTech in Indian scenario and what are the challenges and opportunities related to this technology.

Key Words:Fintech, Blockchain, Digital Payments, DigitalFinance.

  1. Professor, Department of Management Studies, Meerut Institute of Engineering & Technology, Meerut, U.P Email:

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Performance Evaluation of State Owned Commercial Banks of Bangladesh

Dr.Tanbir Ahmed Chowdhury1
Farzana Huda2

In a developing country like Bangladesh the banking system as a whole play a vital role in the progress of economic development. In this paper, we have tried to analyze the development and growth of Selected State Owned Commercial Banks of Bangladesh. It is observed that the selected state owned commercial banks are not able 10 achieve a stable growth of branches, employees, loans and advances, net income, earnings per share during the period of 20112015 The credit management and loan recovery of state owned commercial banks are not satisfactory. Seven Trend equations have been tested for different activities of the state owned commercial banks. Among them the trend value of branches, employees, deposits and net income are positive in case of all the banks: Square of correlation coefficient ir has also been tested for all trend equations. Thereof branches, deposits, loans and advances is more than 0.5 Fathers are also tried to identify the problems of state owned commercial banks and provide some suggestions to overcome the situation.

Key words: Bank, Commercial Bank, Loans, Deposit, NetIncome.

  1. Professor & Dean. Faculty of Business and Economics, East West University. N2 Jahrul Islam City, Aftabnagar, Dhaka 1212. Bangladesh
  2. Senior Lecturer, Department of Business Administration, East West University. A/2 Jahurul Islam City. Aftabnagar, Dhaka 1212. Bangladesh

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Labour Market Absorption of Return Migrants
in Kerala  

P. Azad1
P.K. Sujathan2

The present paper discusses threadbare the labour market absorption of international return migrants in Kerala. While studies on impact of return migration on the family. socio economic background of returnees, their problems are galore, the extant attempt to analyse the labour market absorption of return migrants in Kerala is often less talked about. It is in this context that the relevance of the present study comes to the fore. The logistic regression results of the study show that most of the gulf returnees venture into Small and Medium Enterprises and that, unemployment among return migrants was seen more in rural than in urban areas In addition, the variables such as pre-migration working status increase in the social intercourse and visionary planning had independent positive influences on the employment of return migrants. The paper concludes that the policy makers and administrators must chart out and smoothen up appropriate and target-oriented steps to leverage the potential of return migrants for the development of the state.

Key Words:Return migrants, Labour Market Absorption Kerala.

  1. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, MES Kalladi College Mannarkkad Palakkad, Kerala Email:
  2. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Government Victoria College Palakkad,Kerala. Email:
  3. Ph.D. Scholar. Department of Econometrics, Madras University

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Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittances in Economic
Community of West African States(ECOWAS)  

Muhammad O. Lawan
Bhola Khan

The attempt is made in this article to identify the macroeconomic determinants of remittances for ECOWAS member states between 1990 and 2015. The paper applied Pedroni panel Cointegration test, Levin, Lin Chu panel unit root and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS).The findings revealed that there exists a long run equilibrium relation among the remittances, home income exchange rate and labor market situation. The results of the FMOLS revealed that home income and exchange rate have positive and statistically significant impact on remittances received However, labor market situation has a negative and statistically significant effect on remittances. The study Therefore, recommends that the government within the member state countries should ensure active policies and institutional arrangements to support for continual inflow of remittances and this can be done through training,support and welfare for their expatriate abroad .

Keywords: Co-integration FMOLS Remittances Determinant, ECOWAS

  1. Department of Economics, University of Maiduguri. Maiduguri, Nigeria
  2. Department of Economics, Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria, Email:

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Determinants of Investment Attitude: A Behavioural
Finance Perspective

Dr. Minimol MC 1
Lakshmi J 2  

Even though studies in Psychology revealed the existence of behavioural investor types, literature in behavioural finance failed to provide evidence for the classification of investors based on behavioural Traits exhibited them The present study intends to analyse the behavioural traits affecting investment attitude among individual investors. The attempt is to confirm whether investors are far from being rational as is assumed by traditional finance theories. The study is designed as a cross sectional, descriptive research. The sample for the study consists of 811 individual investors in India. Data were collected from the respondents. by administering structured questionnaire. Sample respondents were identified by following simple random sampling technique Data collected were analysed with the help of Partial Least Square (PLS) method based Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), using Warp PLS 5.0 software The study proved that the behavioural traits exhibited by individual investors influence their investment attitude. The study also developed a conceptual model which shows the linkage between behavioural traits and investment attitude.The study will help market intermediaries to understand how investors behave in the markets

Keywords: Behavioural bias, behavioural finance.heuristics, investment attitude. Overconfidence.

  1. Assistant Professor, Rajagiri Centre for Business Studies, Rajagiri College of Social Sciences (Autonomous). Rajagiri Valley PO. Kakkanad, Kochi, Kerala 682 039 Email:
  2. Assistant Professor School of Business Studies and Social Sciences, Bannerghatta Road Campus, Christ University, Bangalore, India -560076

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