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No. 329 |
OCTOBER 2002 |
Vol LXXXIII |
ISSN 0019-5170 |
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Contents
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Public Debt, Fiscal Stability and Economic Growth in Nigeria
A. G. ABIOLA
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The study examined whether Nigeria had exceeded the critical
limits of public debt indicators and whether the severity of the debt burden
affected fiscal stability and economic growth. It also determined the direction
of causality between public debt and economic growth. Descriptive and
econometric analyses using the error correction modeling (ECM) technique were
employed. It found that the years of oil boom recorded lower debt stock and
debt service as well as higher exports with fiscal stability and relatively
impressive economic performance. Higher debt stock and service, as well as low
exports characterized the years of relatively poor receipts from oil, which
brought fiscal instability and unimpressive economic performance. Furthermore,
external debt imposed more severe burdens. A uni-directional causality running
from economic growth to public debt was found for the Nigerian economy
suggesting that it was the urge to promote economic growth that has been
largely responsible for the high public debt overhang in Nigeria. |
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Gene Revolution Food For All Indians in The 21st Century
AKRAM A. KHAN & F ARHAD SHlRANI BIDABADI
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India's greatest achievement in the 20th century has been
its ability to increase its food production and keeping Malthusian fears at
bay. However, as land and water for agriculture are diminishing resources there
is no room for complacency and no option has remained rather than to produce
more food and other agricultural commodities from less arable land and
irrigation water. In other words, the need for more food has to be met through
higher yields per units of land, water, energy, and time.
The advances in molecular biology and biotechnology provide India with a new
window of opportunity to deal with issues of food production and food security.
It deserves to be discussed, contemplated, and digested at all levels.
Currently farmers in both developing and developed countries as a result of
proper policies and institutions that are in place are adopting GM crops at a
very fast rate. People of India have both rights to get benefit from
biotechnology and know why biotechnology should be used in agriculture when
traditionally bred crop varieties have provided food for human consumption for
thousands of years? Who will benefit from biotechnology? What are risks? And
who will take responsibilities for problems that are sure to emerge? And what
kind of policies are presently in place in regards to issues related to
biotechnology? These reasonable questions deserve to get proper answers. |
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Satisfaction Level from Labour Welfare Schemes in Sugar Factories of
Gorakhpur Division
SANDEEP KUMAR AND SURENDER SINGH YADAV
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The present study was undertaken to examine the labour
welfare schemes in sugar industry of Uttar Pradesh with special reference to
sugar factories of Gorakhpur Division. There are 21 sugar factories in
Gorakhpur Division of different sectors. Eight sugar factories of State
Government and private sector were selected for the study. Total 240 workers
were interviewed for the analysis. The results showed that workers'
satisfaction level from welfare measures which affects work environment is 12
per cent in State Government factories and 30.5 per cent in private sector
factories. Satisfaction level from social security schemes is 22.5 per cent in
State Government factories and 52.5 per cent in private sector factories.
Worker's satisfaction level from housing scheme is 17 per cent in State
Government factories and 42.5 per cent in private sector factories. This is 7.5
per cent from medical scheme in State Government factories and 25 per cent in
private sector factories. Satisfaction level from education scheme is 20.5 per
cent in State Government factories and 29 per cent in private sector factories.
Hence, the analysis has revealed that workers' satisfaction level from welfare
schemes in very less in both the sectors. It also shows that workers in State
Government factories have less satisfaction from welfare schemes as compared to
private sector factories. |
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Economic Development,
Macroeconomic Vulnerability and Financial Crisis: The Case of Malaysia
B. N. GHOSH AND GOH SOO KHOON
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The paper reports the results of an empirical study to
ascertain whether macroeconomic fundamentals or self-fulfilling speculative
expectations mattered in the Malaysian financial crisis in 1997- 98. The paper
examines a variety of macroeconomic factors and, the prohibit test shows
that the crisis occurred at a time when macro fundamentals had slightly
deteriorated but the deterioration of fundamentals does not seem to have been
large enough to explain the magnitude of the crisis. The paper finally observes
that the Malaysian financial crisis of 1997 has been the product of both weak
macro economic fundamentals and self- fulfilling speculative expectations. |
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U. S. Budget Deficits
and Domestic Long Tenn Interest Rates
MICHAEL TOMA
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This paper provides empirical estimates of the causes of the
primary budget deficit and the ex ante real long term rate of interest that
strongly imply that the causality between primary deficit and the ex ante real
long term interest rate yield in the U. S. may actually be be-directional. |
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The Optp Basket
Pegs: for the Case of Hong Kong
AI- YUNG KAM
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This paper calculates optimal elasticity-weighted currency
baskets for HK. Two possible objectives are considered: (I) minimize the
variance of the balance of trade; (II) minimize the variance of the national
income. This paper employs the model developed by Flanders and Help man (1979)
with two modifications. Firstly, the home country's demand for imports will be
included. Secondly, two restricted assumption imposed by Flanders and Help man
are relaxed; (I) the value of import into the small economy is totally price
inelastic; (2) no cross-price effects in the demand for the small economy's
exports. For the objective I, the results show that the basket assigned
relatively more weights to the currencies of the United States (31%), China
(26%), Taiwan (19%), Korea (10%), and Japan (9.7), and less weights to the
Singapore (5%), German (4.5%), United Kingdom (3.1%), France (0.5), and
Thailand (0.2). For the objective 2, the basket assigned relatively more
weights to the currencies of the Taiwan (55%) and Korea (32%), less weights to
the United States (8.5%), German (3%), Singapore (1.2%), Thailand (1%), and
zero weight to United Kingdom, Japan, France, and China. If the currencies of
the five less developed countries are excluded the alternative optimum weights
show that the US dollar accounts for 70% and 95% of the basket, respectively,
which indicates the HK's current fixed exchange rate policy equivalents to
pegging an elasticity- weighted currency basket. |
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Foodgrain Losses at
Farm Level A Case of Paddy Crop in Punjab
JASKARANJIT SINGH AND M. S. SIDHU
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Paddy is an important crop in Punjab. It occupied about 33
per cent of the total cropped area of the state during the year 1999-2000. The
study brought out that harvesting loss to paddy was 18.78 kgs per acre with
sickle and 6.67 kgs per acre with combine harvest. The area harvested with
combine and sickle was about 90 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. The
threshing loss was 0.48 per cent of the produce threshed. The food grain storage
in the gunny bags was the most common followed by storage in metal bin and
bharola. The average storage loss for family consumption and seed was 1.89 per
cent and 1.50 per cent respectively. The rats, birds, etc. caused loss to paddy
during storage. The average quantity of paddy sold was about 165 qtls. The
marketing loss was 0.65 per cent of the produce sold. The total loss at the
farm level to paddy in Punjab on the basis of sample farmers was about 182
thousand tonnes which was 1.39 per cent of the paddy production. In monetary
terms, the loss was to the extent of about Rs. 33 crore during the year
1999-2000. |
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The Process of Quantity-
Tatonnement and the Flow of Funds in the Indian Economy
N. N. SHRIVASTAVA AND A. K. BAJPAI
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This is an exercise in the technique of economic analysis.
The matrix format aptly represents the logic of general equilibrium, where each
element influences and is influenced by the remaining elements of the format.
The change in an element may be expected to change the composition of a vector.
The changed composition of a vector would inevitably induce adjustments among
all the elements of the remaining vectors. However, this paper casts the
financial system of India into a matrix format to examine the adjustment among
the elements comprising a vector. The focus is on the intra vector adjustments'
-the first aspect of the process of quantity-tatonnement. In this context the
decreasing quantitative significance of elements and their inter-dependence is
shown to determine the process of adjustment. |
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