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Special Centennial Issue

No. 397

October 2019

Vol. C

ISSN: 0019-5170



Reforms 2.0 viz-a-viz Political Consensus

Vinay K. Srivastava1


The indirect tax regime of GST has completed two years on July 1, 2019. It has replaced multi-layered, complex indirect tax structure with a simple tax regime. It took a long time to come into existence. It got delayed because of a number of hurdles. One of the major hurdles was political consensus. There is no correlation between politics and reforms. It is a big challenge to create political consensus among the political parties. Political parties are aware that an economic reform is necessary for the rapid growth of the country. But, due to their vote bank they do not support it whenever they are in opposition. The present paper is an attempt to discuss the consensus of political parties for the implementation of new Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the country. The paper discusses how BJP led NDA opposed CAB-2011 of Congress led UPA-II and how Congress that initiated GST bill opposed CAB-2014 of BJP led NDA-II

Key Words: GST, Political consensus, Constitution Amendment Bill, Politics, Economic Reforms

  1. Associate Professor at I.T.S Ghaziabad, Sector-6, 6/160, F-2, Vaishali, Ghaziabad-201010

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Status of Migration Among Tribal Workers After Economic Reform:
A Case Study of West Champaran District of Bihar State in India

Dharmnath Uraon1


After the completion of 28 years of economic reform the principal goal of holistic development with equality is unattended. The horizontal and vertical inequalities are not cracked till the date especially in laborer class. The massive out migration of tribal labours for their livelihoods from rural to urban areas or one state to another state has increased at an enormous rate after reform period in India especially in the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh state of the country. This indicates that most of the developed regions of India are utilizing labour force of backward areas. A detailed investigation of labour out-migration was done in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to study its determinants of migration and their impacts on farm economy. This study is trying to reveal ground root reality of the socio-economic factors of migration of tribal labours and its nature regarding frequencies with different places of the country of surplus unskilled, semi skilled and skilled labour after the new economic reform era in the study area. They have faced lots of difficulties in choosing the places and work. The determinants analysis shows that number of members in the family and their education status had a positive impact on migration. This paper is based on primary data sources, which are supplemented by the secondary sources and other relevant sources. The paper has been divided in five sections, first one is introduction and relevant studies, second part is objective of the study and methodology, then third is data analysis, fourth part is based on findings with conclusion and last section comprises suggestions for betterment of the respondents of the study area

Key Words: Socio-Economic, ground root tribal communities, out-migration, surplus of unskilled labour, Betterment.

  1. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj

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Estimating Technical Efficiency and its Determinants A Study
of Saffron Cultivation in District Budgam of Jammu and Kashmir

Imtiyaz Ul Haq 1


Saffron cultivation in the state of Jammu and Kashmir is an ancient agricultural activity placing India as the second largest producer of saffron in the world. During the year 2009-10 National Saffron Mission was launched to boost this vital sector of the economy in view of its deteriorating trends in area, production and productivity. Because of its socioeconomic and cultural significance, it was also declared as heritage site by the Food and Agricultural Organization. This study pertains to district Budgam, the second largest producer of saffron in the state, in which an attempt has been made to examine the performance of saffron growing farmers by introducing the concept of technical efficiency. It, particularly, investigates the extent to which the saffron growers have been able to realize the potential of new technology brought under the National Saffron Mission. Technical efficiency analysis has been carried out with the help of FRONTIER 4.1 computer programme by specifying Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function on a cross-section data generated from a sample of 90 saffron cultivating farmers selected randomly from 6 villages of the two only saffron producing blocks of the district. The results suggest that on an average saffron farming in the district is only 46 per cent technically efficient ranging between a low of and a high of 9 per cent and 89 per cent respectively. Whole-time specialist farmers and the households with higher number of farm workers are technically less inefficient in contrast to their counterparts. Inefficiency tends to increase with the increase in percentage of saffron land, degree of fragmentation, distance of farms and household income levels.

Key Words: Kashmir Valley, Saffron, Cobb-Douglas Production Function, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Technical Efficiency.

  1. Associate Professor (Principal Investigator), Department of Economics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir-190006. E-mail : Acknowledgement : This research paper is the outcome of a Major Research Project titled, Allocative and Technical Efficiency in Saffron Cultivation in Kashmir Valley funded by the University Grants Commission (UGC), Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi, India. In writing this research paper the author acknowledges support received from the Project Fellow Mr. Asif Tariq and the saffron growing farmers who cooperated with our team in generating the data

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Does Health Expenditure Predict Economic Growth in Nigeria?

Osobase, A. O. 1  
Bakare-Aremu, T. A. 2  

Health is an unique item that can promote economic growth if there is an increasing number of healthy human resource among the active population. It is argued that a society with more healthy economic active population will be more productive than a nation with unhealthy productive individuals. Based on this assertion, this study investigates the impact of health expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria using secondary data from 1981-2018. The data include; Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Aggregate Health Expenditure (AHE), Secondary School Enrolment (SSE) and economic active population (PPT; Ages 15-60). The empirical techniques includes descriptive statistics, Unit root tests, ECM, Granger causality test, Inverse Root of Autoregressive (AR), Q-statistics and Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation tests. The findings from the ECM outcome revealed that at lagged three, only lagged value of RGDP(-2), AHE and SSE significantly predicted RGDP in Nigeria. In addition, the ECM t-statistics result was statistically significant which prompt the estimation of the Granger causality test. The causal result reveals that there is a one-way causal relationship that runs from RGDP to AHE, GCF, SSE without a feedback effect. Furthermore, the Inverse Root of Autoregressive (AR) result depicted that all the polynomial roots, except one, lies outside the unit circle, and this implies that both the IRF and the variance decomposition tests are relatively stable and can be utilize as a basis for temporary policy analysis. Lastly, the Q-statistics and Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation tests indicated that the model is free from serial correlation. Based on the outcomes of the study, it is re-stated that the Nigeria government needs to increase the budgetary allocation to the health subsector for better services delivery likewise, there is the need for better welfare package and remuneration for health care workers to discourage the incessant brain drain issues.

Key Words: Health Expenditure, Economic Growth, ECM, Granger Causality Test.
JEL Classification Code: H5, F43, I1

  1. Research Fellow and Lecturer, Economics Department, Anchor University, Ayobo, Ipaja, Lagos State, Nigeria.
  2. Department of Economics, National Open University of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria.

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Extent of Deprivation of Tea Garden Labourer in Plantations of Different Classification: A Study of Dibrugarh District of Assam

Pradyut Guha 1

Through a carefully designed primary survey present study made an attempt to examine the extent of deprivation of tea garden labourer in plantations of different classification in Dibrugarh district of Assam. Beside using Sens index the Engels ratio was estimated separately for food and non food items of consumption for understanding the level of deprivation among labourer in different classification of tea plantations. There seems to be the moderately high incidence of poverty among the tea garden labourers across the classified tea plantations of the study area with larger share of budget being spent on nourishment. The deprivation level among the labourer seemed to be directly linked to the size of the garden they were engaged in. Low literacy level of labourer constrained the occupational mobility and engagement for supplementary earning of adult dependents. Beside beneficiary of agricultural land as a supplementary earning source the labourer in small size gardens artificially escaped poverty through borrowing of loans which was avoided by the labourers in large size gardens thereby remained under the poverty line in the study area. In addition extent of deprivation among the families to some extent seems to be correlated with inequality in consumption expenditure. Since management of a particular classified pattern of tea plantation provides no assurance offering low lying unutilised land for agriculture or animal husbandry activities of labour household. Hence, public initiatives on training and skill development program through vocational and technical education, awareness on entrepreneurship may help the adult dependents of the labour households in finding engagement outside tea plantation supplementary earning activities thereby influencing their consumption pattern in the study area.

Keywords: Labourer, MPCE, Poverty line, Deprivation
JEL Codes: I32, J31, D630

  1. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Sikkim University, 6th Mile, Samdur, Tadong, Gangtok, Sikkim. E-mail:

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Impact of Economic Indicators on Passenger and
Commercial Vehicle Stocks Returns  

Rama Krishna Yelamanchili 1

In this paper, we aim to study the influence of economic indicators on automobile stocks returns. We chose four passenger and commercial vehicle manufacturers stocks listed in BSE SENSEX and collect monthly stock prices data from April 2012 to June 2019. On the other side, we collect monthly data for four economic indicators of which two are coincident indicators and two are leading indicators. We split sample period into growth years (2012-2017) and decline years (2018-19) and perform data analysis. Results reveal that automobile stocks returns are positive and phenomenal till 2017 and since then negative. We find that during first sample period automotive stocks are very aggressive and outperform both the leading indicators. We also find that there is no relationship between automobile stocks returns and coincident indicators. For second sample period we find that automobile stocks have negative relationship with manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers Index (MMVI). Results of causality tests indicate that AUTO index Granger cause SENSEX with three period lag, and manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers Index Granger cause AUTO index with one and two lag periods during 2012-17. During second sample period, we observe that SENSEX Granger cause MMVI with two lags. Results also indicate that during 2012-17 Indian automobile manufacturers drive Indian stock markets and since 2018 even though the BSE SENSEX grow, AUTO index and auto stocks returns decline. We observe that decline in automobile stocks returns gradually affect MMVI and cause slowdown in industrial production and economic development.

Keywords: Auto sector, Economic Development, IIP, economic indicators, Government Policy.
JEL Code: G17, G18, O14, O25

  1. Associate Professor, Department of Finance & Accounting, ICFAI Business School, IFHE, Dhonthanapalli, Shankarpalli, Hyderabad, Telangana, India. Email:

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Dynamics of Phillips Curve in Indian Economy:
An Empirical Analysis  

Narendra K. Bishnoi1
Manoj Kumar2

Keeping inflation down to pull down the growth rate of the economy, and therefore, recent slowdown may be the result of control on inflation. This issue is critical, therefore, this analysis regarding to examine the existence of Phillips Curve in Indian economy. For the modelled equations of Phillips curve, quarterly data of GDP from Central Statistical Office for the period 1996-2019 for India has been used. The sources for the data on unemployment do not provide comprehensive, regular and uniform defined data on the rate of unemployment. Therefore, Okuns Law has been used to estimate the relevant values unemployment indirectly. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Parron tests have been applied to avoid spurious regression. Granger Causality test has been also employed to confirm the functional causal relationship. All the significant coefficient of OLS of different time periods proves the existence of shortrun Phillips Curve. It means that the inflation and expected inflation helps to reduce the gap between actual output growth and trend-growth of output in India, which reduces the cyclical voluntary unemployment. The results of the study may tempt one to draw the inference that by relaxing the inflation target, India can improve its growth performance by enhancing the productive capacity of the economy.

Keywords: Inflation, Expected Inflation, Unemployment, Rate of Recovery.

  1. Professor, Department of Economics, GJUS&T, Hissar. E-mail:
  2. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, GJUS&T, Hissar. E-mail :

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Social Capital and Life Satisfaction: A Panel Data Analysis of the Moderation Effects of Trust and Sociability on Income and Relative Comparison in the Relationship between Money and Happiness in India.

T. Lakshmanasamy1
K. Maya2

This paper empirically examines the role of social capital in terms of trust and sociability in explaining the incomehappiness relationship in India using the World Value Survey data for the period 1990-2014. The estimated cross-section and panel data results show that the direct effect of social capital on life satisfaction is insignificant relative to the effect of relative income and rank income in India. At the individual level, the estimated indirect effect of social capital, operating through the interaction of social capital with both absolute and relative incomes, reveals that social capital moderates the negative impact of reference income on life satisfaction. At the aggregate state level, social capital incompletely moderates the importance of material well-being on subjective well-being. In developing and less developed states, social capital has no direct effect but has some indirect effect on life satisfaction. In developed states, there is no moderating effect of social capital on life satisfaction is absent. Although the moderation effect of social capital on happiness is not complete, still material wellbeing significantly influences life satisfaction in India, irrespective of the time frame and alternative measures of subjective well-being. The scarcity interpersonal trust and low quality of sociability are not proximate to the level of well-being in India and the concern for materialism still dominates the Indians interest for money.

Keywords: social capital, trust, networks, life satisfaction, moderation effect, decomposition.
JEL Classification: C23, I3, P36

  1. Professor, Department of Econometrics, University of Madras, Chennai. E-mail:;
  2. Research Scholar, Department of Econometrics, University of Madras, Chennai. E-mail:

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Nigerian Federalism: Health and Poverty in Nigeria

Sylvester Ohiomu 1

Blessing Ose Oligbi 2

This paper examined the evolution, structure, and practices of federalism in Nigeria to synthesize the extent to which fiscal federalism in conjunction with agitations for resource control has affected the health and poverty profiles of the citizenry in relation to economic growth and sustainable development. In achieving this, the paper adopted both descriptive and analytical methods by relying on secondary sources for data gathering with a well-researched literature to discuss the interface between these concepts and identify strategies for solution with robust policy recommendations. This research was, therefore, intended to fill the strategic intellectual gap on the subject matter. The findings showed that the dependence of the local government on the states and federal government allocation has led to its inability to positively affect the grass-root health care development while poverty alleviation is threatened. The paper also revealed that Nigeria has not operated as a true federation since it adopted a federal constitution. Fiscal responsibility and taxing powers still remain considerably centralized. The paper, therefore, concluded that the federal government ought to devolve some of its tax powers to state governments in order to stimulate healthy fiscal independence and competition among states. Based on the findings, it was recommended that the current revenue allocation formula and fiscal federalism should be reviewed to embrace autonomy in its entirety in order to achieve national goals and objectives. Government should engage the interest groups on resource control in dialogue for peaceful resolution and proactively offer optimal solution. Direct schemes and workable measures for improved health care development and poverty alleviation should be put in place.

Key Words: Agitation, Federalism, Health Profile, Poverty Prevalence.
JEL Classification: C22, C32, C58

  1. PhD, Department of Economics and Development Studies, Igbinedion University, Okada, Edo State, Nigeria, Email:,
  2. PhD, Department of Economics and Development Studies, Igbinedion University, Okada, Edo State, Nigeria, Email:,

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Multidimensional Poverty Analysis using Fuzzy Logic:
A Study of Districts of Uttar Pradesh

Krishnendu Das 1
Prankrishna Pal 2

Poverty is a Multidimensional phenomenon and it is necessary to incorporate proper dimensions with precision. Sabina Alkire has done a remarkable work in the field of Multidimensional Poverty Index. The proposed methodology for Multidimensional Poverty Index by Alikre is very useful in the aggregate sense but it lacks the individual representation and precision. As Prof S. R. Chakrabarty describes, it is very difficult to judge whether a person is deprived in any of the indicators or the sub-indicators so precisely. So nature deprivation is intrinsically Fuzzy. Many other scholars have described that the information provided by any person regarding his/her deprivation is basically a ranking which is fuzzy in nature. We tried to extend the existing methodology by Alikre to incorporate specific representation of different deprivation among different individuals (rural/urban). We used Fuzzy logic to this extended Multidimensional Poverty analysis for the representation of the individuals. As poverty is multidimensional it requires different specific indicators as well as sub-indicators with proper division of weights to capture the micro aspect of poverty. We calculated the Fuzzy Deprivation Membership value for the specific subindicators and applied the weights predefined by Alkire. We used mainly NFHS-4 (2015-16)unit level household data for our calculation. We applied our extended methodology in the for different districts of Uttar Pradesh for the calculation of MPI* (Fuzzy Multidimensional Poverty Index).

  1. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Lalbaba College (Calcutta University), Belur, Howrah. E-mail:
  2. Professor, Dept. of Economics, Rabindra Bharati University. E-mail:

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